Predicting long-term O&M costs for wind farms and reliability of its parts

Challenge

Integrated Methodology for Reliability Engineering

Approach

Descriptive and Prescriptive Optimization Analytics

Results

Failure rate Predictions for 15 years

Opportunity

Our customer was facing the need to carefully predict the Operations and Maintenance (O&M) expenditures of the Wind Farms for the following years due to a rising cost of unscheduled maintenance.

Major failures not only impact direct revenues, but also those related to components replacement, crane availability, logistics, backup staff, amongst other.

Results

Development of a system that dynamically estimates the reliability of different wind turbine generator (WTG) components throughout its useful life and predicts failure rate of the wind turbines.

The factors from that significantly influence the reliability have been identified, such as WTG Manufacturers, Drive Train Configuration, power class, site and terrain class and wind characterization. Prediction models take into account the technology diversity and geographical spread of the wind farms, allowing for the O&M budgeting of the Wind Farms associated to preventive and corrective actions (due to expected repairs and maintenance policies in use).

Results achieved in 5 months

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