Over the last few years, several consumer goods markets (e.g., sugary drinks, alcoholic beverages, tobacco) witnessed laws that have changed both regarding products’ usage and tax, with significant impacts on brand and consumer behaviour. Further changes with the launch of new product categories will increase the need for price and distribution strategy planning activities.
The current case study was part of a project together with a worldwide consumer goods company to develop a market model for an Asian market, capable of generating strategic insights, including brand and region-specific market share and volumes, and several P&L metrics including brand gross margin and EBIDTA projections.
Several opportunities were identified to enhance the quality and efficiency of the planning process:
Process – Development of a single-tool centralizing information, parameterization and validation processes, thus streamlining scenario exploration to massively reduce lead-time and increase market review frequency.
Intelligence – Development of a predictive engine to estimate total market size according to prices, consumption trends and the natural growth of the population. Regional brand market shares were also forecasted, considering local preferences of product attributes and switching patterns within the available portfolio.
Analysis – Development of dashboards to support the visualization and analysis of strategic scenarios, providing visual aids to explain causality between strategic levers and market outcomes to senior stakeholders.
The project provided the organization with analytical models, which were vested by higher reliability and assisted the strategic decision-making process towards more accurate decisions.
In addition, the integrated market model tool radically reduced the time of generating scenarios, which released the team for higher-value tasks such as result validation and analysis of market insights.
By: Pedro Campelo
